The YOPP Final Summit: Assessing Past and Forecasting Future Polar Prediction Research

The successes of YOPP from the presentations and keynote presentations included * a better understanding of the impact of key polar measurements (radiosondes and space-based instruments such as microwave radiometers), and recent advancements in the current NWP observing system, achieved through coordinated OSEs in both polar regions (e.g., Sandu et al. 2021);* enhanced understanding of the linkages between Arctic and midlatitude weather (e.g., Day et al. 2019);* advancements in the atmosphere–ocean–sea ice and atmosphere–land–cryosphere coupling in NWP, and in assessing and recognizing the added value of coupling in Earth system models (e.g., Bauer et al. 2016);* deployment of tailored polar observation campaigns to address yet-unresolved polar processes (e.g., Renfrew et al. 2019);* progress in verification and forecasting techniques for sea ice, including a novel headline score (e.g., Goessling and Jung 2018);* advances in process understanding and process-based evaluation with the establishment of the YOPPsiteMIP framework and tools (Svensson 2020);* better understanding of emerging societal and stakeholder needs in the Arctic and Antarctic (e.g., Dawson et al. 2017);and * innovative transdisciplinary methodologies for coproducing salient information services for various user groups (Jeuring and Lamers 2021). The YOPP Final Summit identified a number of areas worthy of prioritized research in the area of environmental prediction and services for the polar regions: * coupled atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean models with an emphasis on advanced parameterizations and enhanced resolution at which critical phenomena start to be resolved (e.g., ocean eddies);* improved definition and representation of stable boundary layer processes, including mixed-phase clouds and aerosols;incorporation of wave–ice–ocean interactions;* radiance assimilation over sea ice, land ice, and ice sheets;understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes from a prediction perspective;* exploring the limits of predictability of the atmosphere–cryosphere–ocean system;* an examination of the observational representativeness over land, sea ice, and ocean;better representation of the hydrological cycle;and * transdisciplinary work with the social science community around the use of forecasting services and operational decision-making to name but a few. The presentations and discussions at the YOPP Final Summit identified the major legacy elements of YOPP: the YOPPsiteMIP approach to enable easy comparison of collocated multivariate model and observational outputs with the aim of enhancing process understanding, the development of an international and multi-institutional community across many disciplines investigating aspects of polar prediction and services, the YOPP Data Portal3 (https://yopp.met.no/), and the education and training delivered to early-career polar researchers. Next steps Logistical issues, the COVID-19 pandemic, but also new scientific questions (e.g., the value of targeted observations in the Southern Hemisphere), as well as technical issues emerging toward the end of the YOPP Consolidation Phase, resulted in the decision to continue the following three YOPP activities to the end of 2023: (i) YOPP Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH);(ii) Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (MIIP);of which YOPPSiteMIP is a critical element;and (iii) the Societal, Economics and Research Applications (PPP-SERA) Task Team.

Reflecting on One Health in Action During the COVID-19 Response.

The COVID-19 pandemic, a singular disruptive event in recent human history, has required rapid, innovative, coordinated and collaborative approaches to manage and ameliorate its worst impacts. However, the threat remains, and learning from initial efforts may benefit the response management in the future. One Health approaches to managing health challenges through multi-stakeholder engagement are underscored by an enabling environment. Here we describe three case studies from state (New South Wales, Australia), national (Ireland), and international (sub-Saharan Africa) scales which illustrate different aspects of One Health in action in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In Ireland, a One Health team was assembled to help parameterise complex mathematical and resource models. In New South Wales, state authorities engaged collaboratively with animal health veterinarians and epidemiologists to leverage disease outbreak knowledge, expertise and technical and support structures for application to the COVID-19 emergency. The African One Health University Network linked members from health institutions and universities from eight countries to provide a virtual platform knowledge exchange on COVID-19 to support the response. Themes common to successful experiences included a shared resource base, interdisciplinary engagement, communication network strategies, and looking global to address local need. The One Health approaches used, particularly shared responsibility and knowledge integration, are benefiting the management of this pandemic and future One Health global challenges.